Determinan Impor Kopi Jepang di Pasar Dunia: Konsumsi Domestik sebagai Penggerak Utama dalam Model Persamaan Simultan

Abstract

Japan is the world's fourth-largest coffee importing country after the United States, Germany, and Italy, with an average share of 6.4 percent of total world coffee imports. As a country almost entirely dependent on imported coffee beans, understanding the determinants of Japan's import volume is strategically important for exporting countries, including Indonesia. This study is part of a larger econometric simultaneous-equation model of the world arabica coffee market consisting of 18 structural and 6 identity equations, estimated using the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method with annual time-series data covering 1981-2018. This article focuses on a single structural equation with strong statistical performance among the eighteen structural equations: the Japan coffee import equation, which produced a coefficient of determination of R² = 93.16% (Adjusted R² = 92.15%), a highly significant F-test (F = 92.00; p < 0.0001), and no indication of serial correlation (Durbin-Watson = 1.79). The estimation results show that Japan's coffee import volume is significantly and positively influenced only by domestic coffee consumption in the previous year, while the world arabica price, changes in world robusta price, and the yen-dollar exchange rate are not statistically significant. These findings indicate that, historically, Japan's import behavior has been driven almost entirely by domestic consumption needs rather than price or currency signals, even though the recent depreciation of the yen has raised import costs across Japan's coffee industry. The study suggests that exporting countries should prioritize consistent quality and long-term supply relationships over short-term price or currency-based competitiveness when targeting the Japanese market.